Quantitative Price Forecasting
Accurately predict commodity futures prices using quantitative models
average hit rate over five year history
refresh and update
up to 120 days
Quantitative price forecasts
Empower tomorrow’s decisions with today’s insights
Descartes Labs’ multi-horizon commodity price forecasts employ trusted financial market signals along with critical and timely earth-observation insights about the full commodity supply chain along with financial modeling expertise to serve to you price forecasts of key commodity futures/physical prices.
Expand your market analysis:
- Access to geospatial data at scale
- Field specific expertise (Agronomists, Hydrologists, Climatologists)
- Machine Learning & Modeling (cloud compute, scalable research process)
Our commodities market and quantitative trading expertise allows us to take you from raw data to processed time series to actionable features for a market signal or forecast
Go beyond market prediction with daily hedging and trading recommendations.
You can deploy these forecasts in your own decision making or subscribe to our trading and purchasing strategy products into which these price forecasts feed directly.
Our ever-expanding coverage list for commodities can be sold individually or packaged by product line, and currently includes the following:
Grain & Feed
Who we serve
Peek into the future with forecasts based on geospatial patterns
Providing value for CPG Procurement Managers, Commodity Risk Managers, Supply Chain Managers, Commodity Traders, and other investment professionals.
Lock in the lowest price for your purchases with a timely view of the trajectory of prices and the factors which drive the forecasts. Combined with our Procurement Strategy product, convenient reports provide daily purchasing recommendations and facilitate clear communication among your stakeholders.
Supply Chain Managers
Get the lowest cost and least interrupted supply chain process with a timely forecast of where prices are heading in the short term and long term.
Make informed decisions about buying, selling and managing your commodity positions. This product complements our Trading Strategy product, giving you the edge to navigate the complexities of the financial market with daily trading recommendations.
Positively impact your bottom line with science-backed insights.
Revolutionary machine learning models give the edge organizations needs to stay ahead in unpredictable markets.
Commodity-Specific Price Reports
These daily reports include the following for each subscribed commodity:
- Price Forecast Charts: Forecasts for the two or three closest-to-maturity points on the forward curve
- Forecast Evolution Charts: Easily compare current trajectory and historic forecasts. These are overlaid with realized prices so that you can also see how our previous forecasts are tracking.
- Feature Contribution: The bullish or bearish pull from each feature on the forecast
- Feature Evolution: The history of that feature contribution over time
- Performance Metrics: Monitor performance with historical forecasts so that you can independently backtest, along with hit rates and sharpe ratios for simple buy-and-hold strategies.
Supplemental Data Package
These are commodity-specific and may include:
- Model factors and their weighted contribution, historical daily, by model horizon.
- Model forecasts, historical daily, by forecast horizon, by futures contract expiration month.
- Monthly backtest data, historical monthly.
Horizons and forward curve points
Example horizons are 10d, 22d, 44d, 86d, 120d (where relevant). We predict at each horizon the first three nearby points on the forward curve on the forecast date.
Daily price forecasts at your fingertips
Gain a market advantage with AI-informed
commodity insights and strategies.
Talk to an expert to learn how Descartes Labs can grow your business.